The Gray zone

Despite the increasing U.S. focus on 'near peer competition' and preparing for high intensity warfare with strategic rivals such as China and Russia, the Gray Zone is still the most likely arena for conflict today. 

China has mastered this form of 'under the threshold of war' operations in the South China Sea, with maritime militias, disguised fishing fleets, and island building in contested waters. China has also mastered the use of espionage and cyber warfare on a scale never before seen in history. 

Meanwhile, Russia has perfected hybrid warfare using non attributable paramilitary forces, subversion, propaganda, intelligence and private military companies (PMCs) to achieve its objectives in its near abroad such as Ukraine and Crimea, and perhaps Belarus.   

Influence operations, subversion, and electoral interference are being practiced and expanded by both Russia and China, not only against the U.S. but against NATO countries and America's Asian allies such as Australia and Taiwan. 

Understanding and combating this complex, undefined warfare domain is critical for U.S. national security in this decade.

Areas of focus include:

Cyber warfare and hacking

Intelligence, espionage and counterintelligence

Influence operations and subversion

Information Operations and propaganda

Paramilitary forces and private military companies (eg; Russia's Wagner Group)

Chinese Gray Zone maritime operations in South China Sea

Russian Hybrid Warfare tactics and use in former Soviet states

Special forces and unconventional warfare 

Whole of government approaches to Gray Zone threat